Will Highly Infectious ‘Super-Covid’ Variants Result In The Pandemic Being With Us For Years (Even With Vaccines)?

Even vaccinating 100 percent of the population with Pfizer’s 95% effective shot (green) would leave the transmission rate of the ‘super-covid’ variant from the UK above zero, while less effective shots like Oxford’s (red and blue) would fail to drive the R number below 1, at which point the pandemic would be considered ‘stable’ 

 * Higher transmission rate of the UK ‘super-covid’ variant could drive up the number of people who need to be vaccinated in order for a population to reach herd immunity 
 * US health officials say between 75% and 90% of the population need to be vaccinated for US herd immunity 
 * Vaccines are not 100% effective, so a more infectious variant could spread more quickly from people who got a less effective shot that did not work 
 * University of East Anglia researchers estimate that the new UK variant raises the R number, or transmission rate by about 56% 
 * At that rate, 80% of the US population needs to get Moderna’s or Pfizer’s shot for the pandmeic to be stable 
 * But even vaccinating 100% of the population, including kids, would not drive transmission down to zero 
 * Vaccinating even 100% of the population with Oxford’s 70% effective shot could not drive transmission of the new variant that is already dominant there down to one – the ‘stable’ threshold 
 * Only 5.2% of the US population has gotten a first dose of coronavirus vaccine; President Biden aims for 100 million vaccinations in 100 days 
Even vaccinating 100 percent of the population may not be enough to eradicate COVID-19 once ‘super-covid’ variants become dominant in the US, a new study suggests. 
The emergence of more infectious variants means that each new case could lead to a greater number of additional cases. 
As a result, vaccines – even the most effective ones – may not be able to outpace the rate of transmission. 
Read more …. 
WNU Editor: I am confident that with time this pandemic will burn itself out. But the above post outlines a nightmare scenario that we all better hope does not happen.

Author: Anchorman

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